Central Asia thread. Here lets discuss Central Asia and its future. All -stans and turkic and persian countries, sandwitched between Russia and India.
Bernd
2023-10-15 13:23:35 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291240
There is a great UN site that allows you to chart population data from now into the future
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-with-un-projections
You can pick a country there, pick a year interval and see how many people will live in the country compared with other.
As Russian population declines, Central Asian population rises. And one of the countries with biggest population is...Uzbekistan! There will be half as many Uzbeks, as Russians by 2100. And many ""Russians"" in Russia will probably be Uzbeks.
Bernd
2023-10-15 13:31:56 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291241
If we just look at Stans by 2100, then of course Pakistan will be on top. Followed by Afghanistan. Half a billion of them, muslims, possibly retaining the core muslim tradition in the Southern Central Asia.
Uzbekistan is in the third place with 50 millions. Mind you its a landblocked country also, not even an access to Caspian sea.
Kazakhstan is stable.
Kyrgyzstand, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan - they are very weak, compared to neighbours. The leadership of those countries is not sustainable even in the short term.
Bernd
2023-10-15 13:41:32 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291242
Imagine being Turkmenistan now
Look at whats happening in Armenia. They are being invaded and no-one comes to their help, because they have no sea access. Even though they are in pact of defence with Russia. No you Turkmenistan. Your biggest neighbours are Iran - with nuclear ambitions, Afghanistan under Talliban, growing Uzbekistan and semi-stable Kazakhstan. You have a dynasty rulers who may not be so stable. If you get invaded, probably no one will care. Got to think of it - i never even noticed how silly their flag looks like. Its one of those flags we don't consciously think about. How many stars on it? Some kind of ribbon with ornaments? If someone would tell you its a fake flag of a fake imaginary country, you would probably believe them.
Bernd
2023-10-15 13:56:36 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291243
And thats without even border disputes
There are fuck-tonns of exclaves of Tajikistan with its neighbours.
Some part of Tajikistan named Lolazor is in Kyrgyzstan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lolazor,_Jabbor_Rasulov_District
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:02:56 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291244
Giant Vorukh district of Tajikistan in Kyrgyzstan
and Vorukh village looks big and picturesque
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:07:15 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291245
Another piece of Tajikistan also located in Uzbekistan. Its a long valley along the river in the mountains with the vilage Sarvan or Sarvak
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:11:08 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291247
NEXT Uzbekistan exclaves in Kyrgyzstan
big Sokh District
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:13:47 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291248
Chon-Gara also known as Northern Sokh is Uzbekistan exclave in Kyrgyzstan
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:16:39 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291249
Shohimardon is Kyrgyzstan is also relatively big exclave of Uzbekistan
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:21:52 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291250
Jani-Ayil (also Dzhangail, Jangy-ayyl or Khalmion) (40°12′09″N 71°39′58″E) is a small exclave of Uzbekistan, about 60 kilometres east of Batken and within 1 km of the Uzbek main border. It measures only 2 to 3 kilometres across.
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:25:11 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291252
And then there is 1 exclave of Kyrgyzstan inside Uzbekistan. Barak village
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:36:10 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291253
So Tajikistan has external exclaves in both Uzbekistan(1 Sarvan ) and Kyrgyzstan (2 Lolazor, and Vorukh), but no exclaves of other countries on its own territory
Uzbekistan has external exclaves in Kyrgyzstan (4, Sokh, Chon-Gara, Shohimardon, Dzhangail), but also has exclaves of two other countries on its territory (Barak by KZ, and Sarvan by TJK).
Kyrygzstan has one external exclave in Uzbekistan(1 Barak), but also has exclaves of two other countries on its territory. In total there are 6 exclaves of other countries in Kyrgyzstan. (2 Lolazor, and Vorukh by TJK, and 4 Sokh, Chon-Gara, Shohimardon, Dzhangail by UZB)
In this scheme Kyrgyzstan looks like one of the most cucked nations, because its territory penetrated by both Uzb and TJK.
And Tajikistan looks like less cucked in a way that it doesn't have territories of other nations on its territory, but yet still it needs to have access to its exclaves abroad, with possibility of other countries choking them.
Uzbekistan looks equally cucked and strained, because it has territory of other states inside of itself, but also has external exclaves in Kyrgyzstan, some are pretty far away from border of Uzbekistan.
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:45:45 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291254
And population wise Kyrgyzstan will stay cucked for the forseeable future. While population of exclaves of Tajikistan and UZbekistan on its territory grow.
And if Kyrgyzstan wanted to trade its territory, it can hardly exchange territory of Barak village for maybe Dzhangail or Chon-Gara, because they are similar sizes. And only with Uzbekistan, and that still leaves giant Sokh and Shohimardon inside. And since there are not Kyrgyz territories in Tajikistan, they have no cards to negotiate with Tajijistan at all.
Bernd
2023-10-15 14:58:52 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291255
Other intresting thing to measure is the distance from the capital to the border of neighbouring country.
Capital of Turkmenistan - Ashhabad is 25 km from border with Iran
Capital of Uzbekistan - Tashkent is 11 km from border with Kazakhstan
Capital of Kyrgystan - Bishkek is 17 km from border with Kazakhstan
Capital of Tajikistan - Dushanbe is 57 km from border with Uzbekistan
In millitary sense, you really want your capital to be closer to the center, as far away from the border of your potential enemy. So in this sense, its far from optimal for many of those countries.
Imagine if there is a millitary junta in Kazakhstan and they want to conquer Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan for some reason. Its literally just less than 20 km from Kazakh border.
Bernd
2023-10-15 19:26:50 ⋅ 7mn
No. 291291
Uzbekistan ministry of defence has a lot of information in Russian. Even state television making reports in Russian about exercises
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_rqLONDSfI
picrelated - report on Uzbekistan ministry of defence site about Uzbek army winning silver medal in UK millitary competition. surreal
Bernd
2023-11-29 06:39:23 ⋅ 5mn
No. 294839
Kyrgyzstan changes flag from top to bottom
Bernd
2024-05-07 15:13:56 ⋅ 1w
No. 309550
shots fired